In this week’s “Shipping Number of the Week” from BIMCO, Shipping Analysis Manager, Filipe Gouveia, looks at the global shipping order book which has reached a seventeen-year high. This is boosted by higher newbuilding contracting throughout the 2020s and most recently by the highest quarterly crude tanker contracting in history.
‘By the end of the first quarter of 2026, the global shipping order book hit a seventeen-year high, reaching 191 million compensated gross tonnes (CGT). This is equivalent to seventeen per cent of the global fleet, the highest ratio since 2011. The order book has been boosted by higher newbuilding contracting throughout the 2020s and most recently by the highest quarterly crude tanker contracting in history,’ says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Also read: ‘Container ship order book hits new record high’
Tankers account for almost a third of contracting
During the first quarter of 2026, newbuilding contracting has risen forty per cent y/y to 17.6 million CGT, driven by a tripling of new tanker orders and a rebound in LNG tanker contracting. Overall, tankers have accounted for 32 per cent of total contracting, the highest share since the second quarter of 2017.
Despite this significant yearly increase, newbuilding contracting has decreased seventeen per cent q/q, amid an easing in dry bulk orders. Bulker contracting spiked during the last quarter of 2025, largely due to increased orders for capesize vessels.
Also read: Strait of Hormuz disruptions also impact dry bulk market
Longer lead times and fleet renewal
‘So far during the 2020s, newbuilding contracting has been 47 per cent higher than the average during the 2010s, driven by stronger market conditions in the larger sectors, an overall larger fleet and an increased need for fleet renewal. This has contributed to an increase in newbuilding prices and longer lead times at shipyards, with 57 per cent of contracting so far this year expected to be delivered after 2028,’ says Gouveia.
Some shipping sectors now have relatively large order books. The order book to fleet ratio has risen to 22 per cent for crude tankers, nineteen per cent for product tankers, 37 per cent for containers and forty per cent for LNG.
For crude and product tankers, these newbuildings are expected to support fleet renewal as 21 per cent and seventeen per cent of the respective fleets are now over twenty years old, the age at which recycling is typically considered. By contrast, only four per cent of the container fleet and eight per cent of the LNG fleet are over 25 years old, although these segments are expected to see higher demand growth.
Also read: BIMCO paper: ‘Remove obstacles to safer ship recycling’
70% of contracting to China
Chinese shipyards remained the dominant choice for shipowners, accounting for seventy per cent of contracting in the first quarter of 2026. Korean yards captured a further twenty per cent, supported by stronger LNG tanker ordering. In contrast, contracting at Japanese yards fell 83 per cent y/y to just one per cent of new orders, the lowest share since at least 1996, reflecting limited capacity, long lead times and reduced competitiveness.
‘In the medium term, the already swelling order books across several large shipping sectors could contribute to a slowdown in newbuilding contracting. Long lead times at shipyards and high newbuilding prices, combined with high market uncertainty concerning the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz sailings and alternative fuel availability, could also negatively affect contracting,’ says Gouveia.
Image supplied by BIMCO.
