Despite increasing trade policy uncertainty and falling freight rates, the container ship order book has continued to expand, states BIMCO in a new Shipping Number of the Week. According to Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst, the order book now amounts to ‘more than 1350 ships with a combined capacity of 11.8 million TEU.’
In 2025, global average container freight rates fell an estimated thirteen per cent year-on-year while US import tariff increases raised concerns about increasing trade protectionism. Despite this, global container volumes grew 4.7 per cent year-on-year, according to Container Trade Statistics, and shipowners ordered a record high 4.8 million TEU of new ship capacity.
During the first two months of 2026, shipowners have ordered another 102 ships with a combined capacity of 665,000 TEU, bringing the total order book to 11.8 million at the end of February; an increase of 28 per cent year-on-year.
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Order books smaller container ships double
‘The very largest ships dominating the order book point to a development where larger ships will replace smaller ones throughout the global network of services. 436 ships with capacity of 12,000 TEU or more are on order and make up 65 per cent of the TEU on order,’ says BIMCO‘s analyst Rasmussen.
However, it is the order book for the smaller ships that has grown the fastest during the past year. The order books for the 0-3000 TEU, 3000-6000 TEU and 6000-8000 TEU size segments have all more than doubled during the past year, whereas the rest of the order book has grown by only seventeen per cent.
Recycling could match or exceed new ships
The combined order book of the three smaller segments only makes up sixteen per cent of these segments’ current fleet capacity, however. As 29 per cent of the capacity in the three segments is currently provided by ships twenty years old or older, recycling of older ships could thereby match, or even exceed, the number of new ships being delivered from the order book in the coming years.
Also read: ‘Container ship recycling overhang at least 1.8 million TEU’
Changing ownership structure
The increasing number of very large ships on order is also driving a significant change in the container fleet’s ownership structure.
At the beginning of the 2020s, non-operating owners controlled 43 per cent of the capacity in the fleet. That has since fallen to 36 per cent and will continue to fall as the non-operating owners only account for 24 per cent of the capacity on order.
Challenging supply/demand environment
Rasmussen: ‘During 2025-2029, a total of 11.8 million TEU is scheduled to be delivered. Even if all ships currently 22 years old or older are recycled before the end of 2030, the fleet would continue to grow on average 6.1 per cent per year as it has done so far this decade. This could potentially create a rather challenging supply/demand environment for liner operators to manage.’
Also read: Over 500 alternatively-fuelled container ships on order
