In a new “Shipping number of the week” from BIMCO, Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen looks at the increase in Suez Canal container ship transits. He reveals that for the first time, transits have exceeded fifty per cent of pre-disruption levels.
‘During the first two weeks of October, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753k TEU, according to Clarksons Research, compared with 1457k TEU during the same period in 2023,’ explains Rasmussen. ‘Since the Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea, this is the first time that transits have exceeded fifty per cent of pre-disruption levels.’
Also read: BIMCO: Suez Canal transits still 60% down
Rerouting to avoid Houthi attacks
In November 2023, the Houthis announced that they would target Israeli ships in the Red Sea in response to Israeli attacks in Gaza. They later broadened their criteria to include attacks on other ships, which created uncertainty.
To avoid attacks, container lines began diverting ships away from the Suez Canal and the Red Sea in December 2023 and started sailing via the Cape of Good Hope. By the last week of 2023, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal had fallen to 330k TEU, compared with the year-to-date average of 1290k TEU.
Rasmussen: ‘From early February 2024 to mid-2026, container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 141k TEU per week, equal to on average eleven per cent of the capacity recorded during the same weeks of 2023.’
Also read: Container fleet set to reach new high of 34 million TEU
Gemini Alliance leads return to Suez Canal
Since the Gemini Alliance (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd) announced on 6 July 2026 that its AE15/SE3 Asia–Mediterranean service would return to the Suez Canal, the move back to normal routings has gathered pace.
The Gemini Alliance has since announced the return of five more services to their normal routings, including its remaining three Asia–Mediterranean services. Members of the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance, as well as MSC, have also announced routing changes. In total, changes to sixteen services have been announced since early July.
This meant that during the first two weeks of October, 36 per cent of the total container ship capacity routed via either the canal or the cape transited the canal. This was up from an average of eight per cent between 2024 and mid-2026, but still a long way below the eighty per cent recorded before the attacks began.
Initially, the increase in Suez Canal transits was mainly driven by southbound sailings. In the third quarter, capacity transiting northbound was only 75 per cent of the southbound capacity but rose to 81 per cent during the first weeks of October.
Also read: Strait of Hormuz disruption drives Panama Canal transits
Effect on supply/demand still unclear
‘We estimate that rerouting away from the Suez Canal increased global container ship demand by about ten per cent. That increase is now reducing quickly. However, as the return to the Suez Canal has coincided with increased port congestion in Asia, the full effect on supply/demand has yet to be seen,’ says Rasmussen.
Picture supplied by BIMCO.
