WinGD, a Swiss marine power company, and Envision, a green technology company, have released a study analysing the operational costs of ships powered by renewable fuels. The findings reveal that under moderate global regulations, green ammonia could achieve cost parity with VLSFO and LNG.
This cost parity with very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) could be reached at current prices, even before additional subsidies or rewards associated with zero-emission fuels.
The study, an operating expenses illustration of green-fuelled vessels on the container and bulk trades between China and Australia, uses verified lifecycle emissions factors and current estimated bunkering pricing along the coast of China. By 2050, green ammonia is projected to outperform LNG on a cost basis, with a predicted five to six per cent lower lifecycle operating cost.
Tipping point
Envision Energy Senior Vice President Frank Yu: ‘Through this joint study with WinGD, we have mapped a clear economic pathway for renewable fuels. By leveraging AI-driven optimisation at our Chifeng facility to harmonise renewable energy harvesting with fuel production, we have already reached a tipping point where green ammonia competes with VLSFO and LNG.’
‘Green ammonia can be fully electrified and using green ammonia as bunkering fuel creates more certainty,’ he adds. ‘As we further scale and refine these intelligent technologies, green ammonia will become the most practical and cost-effective choice for the next generation of shipping. This is the certainty we bring to an uncertain market.’
Also read: World-first type approval for two-stroke ammonia engine
Based on real engine performance
Fuel consumption, use of consumables for emissions abatement and tank-to-wake emissions are based on real-life performance of engines in WinGD’s existing portfolio: ammonia-fuelled XDFA, methanol-fuelled XDFM and LNG-fuelled XDF engines. For the vessel cases studied, the illustrations show how VLSFO and LNG are currently the most cost-competitive fuel options, with green ammonia reaching a similar and eventually lower net costs under a global regulatory regime.
‘Using real fuel pricing, engine performance and emissions data, we show how green fuels can become commercially viable options for ship operators,’ explains WinGD CEO Dominik Schneiter. ‘With global policy on pause, now is the time for the industry to show how it can overcome the obstacles to decarbonisation using the fuels and technologies that already exist today.’
E-LNG and green methanol will take longer
The study finds that e-LNG and green methanol may have a longer path to viability, requiring the addition of higher rewards under a global regime — although the price evolution will depend on the speed at which producers can increase volumes. Further fuel candidates and power configurations will be modelled by WinGD in future studies.
Also read: Steel cut for world’s first ammonia-powered container ship
Ramping up production
The collaboration between WinGD and Envision comes as both companies ramp up the introduction of green fuels and technologies to the shipping market. Envision’s Chifeng green ammonia plant is already producing around 320,000 tonnes annually, with exports having commenced in Q4 2025. Envision offers a proprietary, full-stack technology package for green hydrogen and ammonia production. By 2028, the industrial park is projected to produce 1.5 million tonnes of green ammonia per year, serving as a replicable model for clean industrial hubs worldwide.
Meanwhile the first WinGD-designed X-DF-A ammonia engines enter service in the second half of this year, joining a clean-fuel capable installed base that includes nearly 1000 LNG-fuelled X-DF engines in service, as well as nearly 100 X-DF-M methanol-fuelled engines delivered and on order.
With the first opex study based on real lifecycle emissions and real engine performance, WinGD and Envision hope to advance industry discussion of the role of ZNZ fuels in shipping’s decarbonisation efforts. Download the full study here.
Picture: Fuel economics cover picture (image by WinGD and Envision Energy).
Also read: WinGD’s first ammonia engine installed on Exmar vessels
