In the first ten months of 2024, shipyards have delivered more container ships than ever before, reports BIMCO in its latest Shipping Number of the Week. So far, 410 ships have been delivered with a capacity of 2.5 million TEU.
This figure surpasses ‘the previous full year high of 2.3 million TEU in 2023,’states Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
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Fleet grows by 32% since early 2020
As recycling of older ships has remained low, the deliveries have increased the size of the container fleet by 2.4 million TEU (8.7 per cent) since the beginning of 2024. The container fleet now consists of 6699 ships with a capacity of 30.4 million TEU.
The fleet has grown 32 per cent since early 2020 as 7.8 million TEU have been delivered during the first half of the decade, which is the most during any five-year period.
286 ships added to the order book
‘Despite the rapid expansion of the fleet, owners continue to add orders for new ships,’ adds Rasmussen. ‘So far this year, contracting is already more than double that of last year’s total and 286 ships with a capacity of 3.3 million TEU have been added to the order book. The order book dipped to 5.9 million TEU in early June, but is now back at 7.6 million TEU, 25 per cent of the size of the total fleet.’
Though the order book is currently marginally smaller than the 7.8 million TEU record from early 2023, it is worth noting that operating owners’ order book is at a record high of 5.9 million TEU.
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Operating owners see fleet grow faster
Operating owners control 78 per cent of the order book, but only sixty per cent of the fleet and will therefore see their fleet continue to grow faster than non-operating owners. So far this decade, the operating owners’ fleet has grown 41 per cent whereas the non-operating owners’ fleet has grown only eighteen per cent.
Ships with a capacity between 12,000 and 17,000 TEU have driven 42 per cent of the capacity growth since early 2020 and will also be the main driver of growth in the coming years as they contribute 47 per cent of the capacity in the order book. Ships larger than 17,000 TEU have contributed 25 per cent of fleet growth in the 2020s and make-up 27 per cent of the order book’s capacity.
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3.0 million TEU added in 2024, recycling may increase
Another 0.5 million TEU are scheduled to be delivered during the rest of 2024, driving deliveries for the year close to 3.0 million TEU. During the next four years, an average of 1.7 million TEU are scheduled to be delivered each year and 0.3 million TEU are already planned for delivery in 2029. However, additional ships for delivery in the next five years can still be ordered.
‘As mentioned, the order book to fleet ratio is currently 25 per cent, but actual fleet growth will depend on future recycling. After a few years of very low recycling, 3.4 million TEU will be more than twenty years old next year and prime candidates for recycling in the coming years. If they are all recycled during the next five years, fleet growth from the current order book can be limited to fourteen per cent,’ concludes Rasmussen.
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