New research from Lloyd’s Register (LR) and University College London’s Energy Institute has explored the drivers for the future energy mix in shipping in 2030.
LR's Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030 provides insight into future fuel demand for the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker sectors – representing approximately seventy per cent of the global shipping industry’s fuel demands.
Heavy Fuel Oil Stays Main Fuel
The research report indicates that in all three scenarios heavy fuel oil remains the main fuel for deep sea shipping; LNG develops a deep sea bunker market share of eleven per cent; low sulphur heavy fuel oil and hydrogen emerge as alternatives in certain scenarios.
The three scenarios are:
- Status Quo – The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.
- Global Commons – A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow.
- Competing Nations – States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth.
Decreasingly Conventional
By 2030, the marine fuel mix for containers, bulk carriers and tankers will become decreasingly conventional. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) will still be very much around in 2030, but in different proportions for each scenario: 47 per cent in Status Quo, to a higher 66 per cent in Competing Nations and a 58 per cent share in Global Commons, the most optimistic of scenarios for society. A high share of HFO, of course, means a high uptake of emissions abatement technology when global emissions regulations enter into force.
LNG and Hydrogen on the Rise
The declining share of HFO will be offset by low sulphur alternatives (MDO/MGO or LSHFO) and by LNG, and this will happen differently for each ship type and scenario. LNG will reach a maximum eleven per cent share by 2030 in Status Quo. Interestingly, there is also the entry of Hydrogen as an emerging shipping fuel in the 2030 Global Commons scenario which favours the uptake of low carbon technologies stimulated by a significant carbon price.
