A study by DNV KEMA Energy & Sustainability found that performance predictions for large scale North American wind energy projects placed in service between 2010 and 2012 were substantially more accurate than for projects placed in service between 2001 and 2009.
DNV KEMA recently published the 2013 update to its study, “Actual versus Predicted Wind Power Project Performance.” One of the key findings is that developments in wind energy assessment technology and expertise since 2009 have resulted in a substantial improvement in the industry’s ability to accurately estimate a wind project’s energy production before the project is built.
The study indicates that wind energy projects entering service since 2010 have produced an average of 97 per cent of the energy predicted, an improvement of 6 per cent percentage points over projects put in service between 2001 and 2009. Additional improvement is anticipated when data is available from projects whose energy estimates include recent changes in energy assessment techniques.
Reducing the Cost of Wind Energy
Robert Poore, a Senior Advisor at DNV KEMA: ‘As confidence is gained in the improved methods, we expect to see less discounting of pre-construction estimates when investors evaluate wind projects. In the long run, this should help reduce the cost of energy from wind.’
The DNV KEMA study identifies robust wind assessment campaigns, more comprehensive curtailment risk analysis and further research into wake and flow modeling as key elements in further reducing uncertainty in wind project energy assessments.
Better Financing Terms
‘When we plan and execute a better than average site measurement program, including the use of remote sensing, the reduced uncertainty in the energy assessment frequently results in more favorable financing terms, higher project value and higher confidence when bidding for power purchase agreements,’ says Mr. Poore.
