In a new study, Lloyd’s Register (LR) and University Maritime Advisory Services (UMAS) show what is needed to enable the transition, both at the ship and supply infrastructure level, to zero-emission vessels.
Zero-emission vessels are crucial to achieve the IMO’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Strategy 2050 ambition. The study "Zero-Emission Vessels Transition Pathways" demonstrates to all stakeholders what action needs to be taken now.
Milestones, Barriers and Enablers
The study looks at the key milestones, barriers and enablers over the specified timeframe, and considers cost implications, operating profile and how policy measures such as carbon pricing could influence the outcomes.
Study Findings
Among others, the study indicates that:
- 2020-2030 is the most significant decade, stressing the urgency for early action. Because there is still uncertainty about the fuel or technology to choose, this decade will see full-scale pilots and prototypes, the development of policy, standards and rules, and will be characterised by first adopters driven by consumer pressure.Batteries in short-sea markets, or if used as hybrids, and on-shore power supply will play an important role in reducing the dependency on fossil fuels. Easy to store zero or low-carbon fuels (for example sustainable biofuel and methanol) may also be an attractive solution as existing infrastructure and machinery can be used to ease the transition.
- The 2030s will see a scaling up of zero-carbon solutions.
- The evolution of shipping’s fuel mix is closely linked to the evolution of the wider energy system, so a clear signal needs to be given to the potential fuel producers. The study's researchers expect to see a consolidation of what the dominant technologies for use on board will be and the interactions between end-fuel price, machinery costs and revenue loss will be better understood.
- Up to the 2050s, it is possible to see more than one switch. For example, a growing share of biofuels in the 2020s with on-going efforts to develop fuels produced from renewable electricity, referred to as electro-fuels, resulting in a major shift to electro-fuels in the 2040s and 2050s. It is expected that by 2050, and beyond consolidation of the market, an end fuel mix will become clear dominated by one family of fuels.
Zero-emission Vessels Need to Enter the Fleet by 2030
Previous LR and UMAS studies, Low Carbon Pathways (in conjunction with Shipping in Changing Climates) and Zero-Emission Vessels 2030, have shown that to achieve at least a 50% reduction in CO2 by 2050 and to be on course for a CO2 pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement, zero-emission vessels need to enter the fleet around 2030. What's more, a significant portion of new-builds will have to be zero-emission to compensate for the non-zero emissions of the existing fleet.
Key Energy Sources
So, by investigating all key energy sources that would allow zero-carbon fuels to enter the shipping fuel market: renewable electricity, bio-energy and fossil fuels with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), the Transition Pathways study supports those who are planning to finance, design or build a ship in the 2020s and who will need to consider how their ships can switch to non-fossil fuel later in their operational life.
Collaborative Joint Ventures
And for those not directly associated with ship building or operating: the shipping industry must now establish collaborative joint ventures involving the shipping industry partners, but also fuel technology companies, equipment manufacturers and energy developers from other industry sectors to be able to develop, scale and commercialise the uptake of zero-emission vessels.
The study can be downloaded from the LR website.
